The holiday season is no longer confined to November and December. As Amazon and other retailers hold October sales events, enticing consumers to start their holiday shopping early with deep discounts, the traditional holiday season is expanding.

Besides deal-seeking, the holiday season sees consumers’ omnichannel preferences as they shift between online, phone, and in-store shopping. Flexible payment options like buy now, pay later (BNPL) are playing a larger role as consumers seek alternative payment methods.

This guide explores the changing holiday season and what retailers need to know about consumer shopping habits. We recap the 2023 holiday season and preview 2024’s holiday outlook.

The holiday season is getting longer 

Historically, the holiday season has referred to November and December, the last two months of the year containing the Cyber Five (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday), Christmas, and New Year’s Eve.

  • The Cyber Five—Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Sunday, and Cyber Monday—will account for 15.5% of US holiday retail ecommerce sales in 2024, per a July 2024 EMARKETER forecast.
  • Cyber Monday is usually the biggest online shopping day of the year. In 2023, Cyber Monday sales totaled $13.93 billion, a third of all Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales, and are expected to grow 5.6% in 2024.

In 2022, Amazon introduced a second Prime Day in October alongside its usual July event. The two-day Prime Early Access Sale prompted many holiday shoppers to start early, lengthening the shopping season.

Holiday consumer shopping habits and behaviors

Like the rest of the year, consumers switch seamlessly between shopping online, on their phone, and in-store at major stores, so retailers must ensure a consistent customer experience across all channels.

  • Over half (55%) of US and UK adults research and buy products online via a retailer’s website, per January 2023 Coveo data. More than a third (37%) will research products on a retailer’s website but wait to buy them in a physical store.
  • US retail mcommerce holiday sales will grow 13.4% to $140.65 billion in 2024, making up over half (52.7%) of total holiday retail ecommerce sales, per a July 2024 EMARKETER forecast.
  • Despite that, non-ecommerce sales will make up the majority (80.3%) of total holiday retail sales in 2024.

However, shopping preferences vary among generations.

ways in which us gen z and millennials vs gen x and baby boomers plan to shop during the holiday season
A chart showing ways in which US Gen Z/millennials versus Gen X/baby boomers plan to shop during the 2023 holiday season.
  • 80% of consumers planned to reduce their holiday spending in 2023, according to a Celigo survey.
  • 77% said they would prioritize value by seeking cost-effective holiday purchase options, per Celigo.
  • In November 2023 sales, clear percentage discounts on all products were the most preferred deal, cited by 60% of US consumers, per an October 2023 Boston Consulting Group survey. Other top choices included steep discounts on selected items (58%), free/reduced shipping costs (48%), and bundle deals like buy one get one free (45%).

Many consumers turned to BNPL services for holiday purchases during the 2023 season.

  • Cyber Monday 2023 was BNPL’s biggest day ever, with holiday shoppers using BNPL to purchase $940 million worth of online orders, according to Adobe Analytics.
  • Consumers spent $16.6 billion via BNPL in November and December 2023, per Adobe Digital Insights.

Challenges with post-holiday-season returns

Returns are a year-round challenge for retailers (EMARKETER forecasts US retail return value will grow 2.0% in 2024 to $931.85 billion), but they can be overwhelming after a busy holiday season due to increased sales.

Retailers are experimenting with strategies to reduce return volumes.

  • Some retailers, like Zara, J.Crew, and Abercrombie & Fitch, have begun implementing return shipping fees for online orders.

Retailers must be careful when implementing return policies. If they become too costly or inconvenient, it could hurt the bottom line.

What we saw in the 2023 holiday shopping season

Despite price sensitivity, US holiday sales rose 3.9% to $1.297 trillion in 2023, per EMARKETER’s July 2024 forecast.

As holiday retail sales trends normalized to pre-pandemic levels, ecommerce led sales growth, increasing 8.8% to $244.86 billion, per EMARKETER. (This is slightly higher than the $222.1 billion online spend reported by Adobe Analytics, a 4.9% YoY increase.) However, non-ecommerce sales grew just 2.8%, making up 81.1% of total US holiday retail sales.

Deep discounts drove Cyber Five consumer spending in 2023, resulting in $39.25 billion online sales, per EMARKETER’s July 2024 forecast.

  • Cyber Monday brought in $12.93 billion, a third of total Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales and the highest of any single day.
  • Black Friday was second ($10.19 billion), followed by Thanksgiving Day ($5.83 billion), Small Business Saturday ($5.28 billion), and Cyber Sunday ($5.01 billion)

Caption: A chart showing US Cyber Five retail ecommerce holiday sales, by shopping day, 2024.

Holiday shopping season 2024: What we expect

We expect 2024 holiday sales to follow a similar pattern as 2023.

  • We forecast 2024 holiday retail sales at $1.353 trillion, growing 4.8% YoY.
  • Ecommerce sales will grow 9.5% to $266.89 billion, as consumers prefer online shopping for quick purchases and price comparisons. Non-ecommerce sales will grow 3.7% to $1.1 trillion.

Deal-seeking will remain a priority for consumers facing inflation, layoffs, declining savings rates, and challenging economic factors. Retailers must be ready to discount throughout the season, using social and mobile channels to reach consumers.

This story has been updated from a previous version.